Asia s new arms race as china grows wealthier and builds up its military, other nations in the region are taking noteand amassing weapons of their own. Indias mirv program and deterrence stability in south asia. There is growing concern that southeast asia is in the midst of a regional arms race. The united states has a significant impact on the south asian nuclear threat as well, both direct and indirect. International politicoeconomic processes, corrupt political leadership, inefficient state institutions and growing. The prospect of an arms race is interlinked economics, politics and public policy in east asia and the pacific. Rapid militarism across south asia is likely to continue in the new year and beyond as simmering tension between its two larger member states nuclear rivals india and pakistan persists. The conventional, missile and nuclear weapons arms race between india and pakistan intensifies insecurity in the subcontinent and poses serious risks of strategic instability in south asia. Yes, southeast asian states are bulking up their militaries but that doesnt necessarily translate to an arms race. In the case of south asia, an expensive conventional arms race would argu ably follow. Asia pacific was the second largest destination of u. There is no doubt in my mind it could escalate to a nuclear war a war no one can win.
Control in south asia, will hopefully become a standard reference for academic courses as well as essential reading for government officials, military officers, and nongovernmental experts. Economically, most south asian countries are increasingly dependent on the global market. Experts, journalists, and commentators have talked about an arms race in this area as a fact, a trend, or an alarming threat. The littoral countries of the south china sea have committed large chunks of their military spending to upgrading their naval capacity, including in maritime aviation. We have argued that arms races in the twentyfirst century will be very different from the cold war arms race. Should south asia succumb to arms races, crises, and war, the region could play a destabilizing role well beyond the subcontinent. The flurry of developments heightened anxiety in asia over. One of the things that is different about arms races now is the presence of increasing returns in the. Several scholars have applied this model to south asia directly to test for empirical evidence of an arms race.
China is massively increasing its military spending, worrying many of its neighbours into joining the new arms race in asia. With over three billion people, it contains more than half of the global population, including the worlds two most populous nations, india and china, this paper will use indopacific, asiapacific, and asia interchangeably, all to refer to the same geographic area defined herein. Pdf arms race and development debate in south asia. Introduction after crossing the nuclear rubicon in may 1998, india and pakistan, the two nations of south asia, accept been accepting on a circuit that can just accompany added noteworthy uncertainty, pressure, the arm race and mal improvement to the region. Pdf the indiapakistani military and nuclear arms race. The arms race in northeast asia undercuts all talk of peace in the region. Compared to the period 20062011, vietnam s arms imports. During the cold war the united states and the soviet union became engaged in a nuclear arms race. Introduction as a region almost entirely unencumbered by meaningful nuclear arms control, south asia is unique. Arms imports by individual southeast asian states show a similar picture. The regional security complex in south asia article pdf available june 2018 with 2,360 reads how we measure reads. This is not to say that the nuclear options of india and pakistan are themselves unconstrainedexport. Jul 25, 2006 i do not believe that the concerns of an arms race in the report will have any impact when it comes to congress for passing the usindia nuclear agreement, or for that matter, the uspakistan f16 sale, maintains christine fair, south asia expert and senior research fellow at the united states institute of peace. The nuclear age opened during world war ii with a blinding light.
Certainly many nations in the region have been on a veritable shopping spree for advanced conventional. While this is clearly a strategic arms race between india and pakistan, this is also. Since the south china sea reemerged around 2008 as a hotspot of simmering conflict, conventional wisdom has held that tension in the area is driving an arms race among its littoral countries. In this case, a rapid arms buildup from the 1950s onward, spurred by such mistaken beliefs as the missile gap on the us side. Dec 20, 2017 defense companies are profiting as a major arms race is taking place all over the region.
Dec 26, 2016 arms race in asia we show case not 1 but a series of events which have happened in quick succession, in a span of just few weeks they clearly indicate that a massive arms race is on in south. Security dilemma in south asia umbreen javaid and marium kamal. Nuclearization of south asia and the future of nonproliferation 4 the united state is the major culprit in the erosion of the npt. This could become a mindless race, driven by mutual suspicion, rather than the actual needs of deterrence and stability. For the first time, this report will also examine the trends in each category over time. Northeast asia is where four of the worlds largest militaries those of the united states, china, russia, and japan confront each other. Regional arms race or bilateral arms races in northeast. The crises of democracy in south asia south asian development is in a stage of crisis. Those who use complete nuclear disarmament within a short timeframe. Pdf nuclear arms race in south asia muhammed yusen. In 2015, stimson will launch a groundbreaking, open online course on nuclear issues in south asia that will give thousands of. Looking at southeast asia specifically, concerns about a potential regional arms race first emerged in the 1980s, when the regional air forces started to acquire supersonic combat aircraft for the first time. Others tend to be more diversified, including australia 61% from the u. Ideally, the best measure of whether the two are in fact in a classic, reciprocal nuclear arms competition would be the rate at which both sides are.
According to the perspective of indian and pakistan find, read and. Regional arms race or bilateral arms races in northeast and southeast asia. The nuclear arms race between india and pakistan is intensifying, with new weaponry and more aggressive doctrines that are stoking tensions between two powers at growing risk of confrontation. Nuclear weapons and arms control in south asia after the. Pakistans quest for security ghazala yasmin jalil abstract the paper examines the nuclear arms race in south asia. India and pakistan are indeed entangled in a longstanding security competition. Thursday of renewed arms race in south asia after the united states and india this week reached a nuclear trade breakthrough this. In southeast asia, arms buildups are also a key part of the current strategic landscape, with military spending increasing by 62 per cent between 2002 and 2012, according to sipri estimates. August 2017 6 late, for instance in the south china sea with its many conflicts.
Assessing progress on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. Defense companies are profiting as a major arms race is taking place all over the region. This has generated arms race and development debate in south asia. They both spent billions and billions of dollars trying to build up huge stockpiles of nuclear weapons. Numerous media outlets and observers have interpreted these changes in the regions arms dynamics as indicators of an arms race in southeast asia. This, quite simply, is not the first time that concerns about arms races in asia have emerged. The first comprehensive history of arms races in modern international politics. The paper traces the nuclear arms competition between the two south asian rivals and. Nuclear weapons and arms control in south asia after the test ban eric arnett i. The first option deals with the global arm race and the nuclear. Nuclear arms race in south asia and its impact on regional. This would also have a direct impact on europe since a majority of its trade with asia which is crucial for the world economy uses shipping lanes in these waters.
Sep, 2012 whether, as karnad asserts, the circle cannot be squared, is a question we did not address, in part because it is so complex, but also because our focus was on articulating the need to think more broadly than the prevailing cold war notion of an arms race when it comes to the future of south asia. The claims and realities this paper sets out to challenge the conventional wisdom that structural factors consist of the china threat, and that the ongoing south china sea disputes are the prime factors in the current military buildups in southeast asia. In increasing numbers, analysts and policymakers are expressing concern about a potential arms race in east asia, with the regional tensions intensifying, especially in connection to china. Fearon department of political science stanford university draft march 24, 2011 abstract i consider a model of arming in which states choose in successive periods whether to build weapons and. Bbc news south asian can the arms race between india and.
This book provides the first comprehensive history of the arms racing phenomenon in modern international politics, drawing both on theoretical approaches and on the latest historical research. As china expands its influence in the disputed south china sea, an arms race has developed among other nations with claims in the area. Stimson is a thoughtleader in the dynamics of deterrence, escalation, crisis. Southeast asia military modernization, arms race, arms. Understanding the arms race in south asia carnegie. If there is no arms race in east asia, then many of the conventionally accepted arguments about asian security and american grand strategy in the region need to be revised. Nuclear strategy and regional stability in southern asia.
Comments by donald trump draw fears of an arms race in asia. The security competition between india and pakistan has been characterised by an actionreaction spiral. Security dilemma in south asia umbreen javaid and marium. Jul 27, 2000 kashmir is the bone of contention between india and pakistan. The focus of this paper is to analyse this debate objectively. Compared to the period 20062011, vietnam s arms imports increased almost sevenfold. The nuclear competition started in 1974 with india detonating the device, codename smiling buddha, at the pokhran region of the rajasthan state. Regional arms race or bilateral arms races in northeast and.
Asia s naval buildups through the lens of history bruno hellendorff and thierry kellner a revised version of the 1921 washington conference could prove useful in facilitating dialogue in the face of ongoing naval modernisation in the asia pacific. Pdf arms race and development debate in south asia sanchita. Arms race escalates in south asia region by rahul bedi 5. Deploys missile defense in south korea soldiers guarded the entrance to a golf course where the terminal. The deeply ingrained, traditional hostility between india and pakistan accentuates the dangers inherent in a south asian nuclear proliferation. Comments by donald trump draw fears of an arms race in asia american troops participating in joint military exercises with south korea this month in. The resulting arms competition, or arms dynamic, has at least the potential to contribute to a classical security dilemma, a situation whereby actions taken by a country can actually undermine the security and stability that they were meant to increase. Sep 01, 2014 understanding the arms race in south asia the apparently rapid pace of nuclear developments in india and pakistan has led many analysts to warn of an impending arms race between the two countries. Taking these factors into account, equating the changing arms dynamics of southeast asia with an arms race appears somewhat hyperbolic. Arms races in international politics thomas mahnken. Threat assessment brief analysis on effective policy responses to weaponsrelated security threats highlights as the country against which india measures its own nuclear weapons profile. However, while changes in southeast asia s regional arms dynamics remain below the threshold of an arms race, they do amount to more than a maintenance of the status quo.
However, studies on military expenditures by india and pakistan have produced no unanimity of view on whether an arms race existed historically, let alone today. And the philippines recent acquisition of a dozen new south korean fighter jets looks much less impressive if one considers that the last functioning fighter jet in the country was retired in 2005. Pdf on feb 18, 2019, nawab sher and others published arms race in south asia. Asia simply developed differently than western economies. Nuclear policy september 2012 understanding the arms race in south asia. This measure is intended to provide a snapshot of overall progress, or lack thereof, on the 10 key standards. It also sustains a growing global militaryindustrial complex.
An arms race occurs when two or more nations participate in interactive or competitive increases in persons under arms as well as war material. Sep 30, 2016 yes, southeast asian states are bulking up their militaries but that doesnt necessarily translate to an arms race. Arms races as exemplified by the accumulation of stocks of weapons represent a very special case of weapons as an instrument of power. Understanding the arms race in south asia the apparently rapid pace of nuclear developments in india and pakistan has led many analysts to warn of an impending arms race between the two countries. Unless the problem is solved according to the wishes of the people of kashmir, the arms race in south asia will accelerate. The paper examines the nuclear arms race in south asia. The final classic example is the nuclear arms race between the soviet union and the united states. Written by an international team of specialists, it is divided into four sections. Asia arms race heats up over south china sea april 02. Science asias space race could turn into an arms race the current space race in asia, mainly between china, japan, and india, could kyle niemeyer dec 12, 2011 2. Near the end of the cold war the soviet union was spending around 27% of its total gross national product on the military.
In 20, stimson launched a new website, south asian voices. The worlds first nuclear bomb exploded at alamogordo on 16 july 1945. The south asia program produces policy analysis and academic research on regional strategic trends and geopolitical dynamics in order. The indiapakistani military and nuclear arms race in postcold war period. Feb 24, 2018 and the philippines recent acquisition of a dozen new south korean fighter jets looks much less impressive if one considers that the last functioning fighter jet in the country was retired in 2005. For more on adrian browns story, go to the sbs dateline website. Arms races in international politics from the nineteenth to the twentyfirst century edited by thomas mahnken, joseph maiolo, and david stevenson.
A new arms race explaining recent southeast asian military. Arms race in asia we show case not 1 but a series of events which have happened in quick succession, in a span of just few weeks they clearly indicate that a massive arms race is on in south. What factors are driving this military modernisation. Mar 29, 2016 comments by donald trump draw fears of an arms race in asia. May 22, 2012 china is massively increasing its military spending, worrying many of its neighbours into joining the new arms race in asia. I do not believe that the concerns of an arms race in the report will have any impact when it comes to congress for passing the usindia nuclear agreement, or for that matter, the uspakistan f16 sale, maintains christine fair, south asia expert and senior. South korea is also building a naval base on jeju, one of its southernmost islands, far from pyongyang but strategically located between japan and china. Asias space race could turn into an arms race ars technica.
In south asia, india and pakistan have also engaged in a technological nuclear arms race since the 1970s. Nuclearization of south asia and the future of non. While claiming to be protecting the world from proliferation threats in iraq, libya, iran and north korea they also have abandoned past pledges and now threaten first use of nuclear weapons against non. Only countries with less money are not caught up in the reactionary mode. Balachandran and others published nuclear arms race in south asia. Simply defined as a competition between two or more states to have superior armed forces. Today, only two countries get their arms almost solely from the u.