Asia s naval buildups through the lens of history bruno hellendorff and thierry kellner a revised version of the 1921 washington conference could prove useful in facilitating dialogue in the face of ongoing naval modernisation in the asia pacific. Jul 27, 2000 kashmir is the bone of contention between india and pakistan. Stimson is a thoughtleader in the dynamics of deterrence, escalation, crisis. If there is no arms race in east asia, then many of the conventionally accepted arguments about asian security and american grand strategy in the region need to be revised. Yes, southeast asian states are bulking up their militaries but that doesnt necessarily translate to an arms race.
Threat assessment brief analysis on effective policy responses to weaponsrelated security threats highlights as the country against which india measures its own nuclear weapons profile. Asia simply developed differently than western economies. Security dilemma in south asia umbreen javaid and marium. The arms race in northeast asia undercuts all talk of peace in the region. In the case of south asia, an expensive conventional arms race would argu ably follow. Nuclear strategy and regional stability in southern asia. The security competition between india and pakistan has been characterised by an actionreaction spiral. Understanding the arms race in south asia the apparently rapid pace of nuclear developments in india and pakistan has led many analysts to warn of an impending arms race between the two countries. Nuclear weapons and arms control in south asia after the. It also sustains a growing global militaryindustrial complex. The crises of democracy in south asia south asian development is in a stage of crisis. Defense companies are profiting as a major arms race is taking place all over the region. Sep 30, 2016 yes, southeast asian states are bulking up their militaries but that doesnt necessarily translate to an arms race.
However, studies on military expenditures by india and pakistan have produced no unanimity of view on whether an arms race existed historically, let alone today. We have argued that arms races in the twentyfirst century will be very different from the cold war arms race. In increasing numbers, analysts and policymakers are expressing concern about a potential arms race in east asia, with the regional tensions intensifying, especially in connection to china. This measure is intended to provide a snapshot of overall progress, or lack thereof, on the 10 key standards. Several scholars have applied this model to south asia directly to test for empirical evidence of an arms race. Thursday of renewed arms race in south asia after the united states and india this week reached a nuclear trade breakthrough this. Pdf arms race and development debate in south asia sanchita. Sep 01, 2014 understanding the arms race in south asia the apparently rapid pace of nuclear developments in india and pakistan has led many analysts to warn of an impending arms race between the two countries. They both spent billions and billions of dollars trying to build up huge stockpiles of nuclear weapons. The nuclear competition started in 1974 with india detonating the device, codename smiling buddha, at the pokhran region of the rajasthan state. During the cold war the united states and the soviet union became engaged in a nuclear arms race. The worlds first nuclear bomb exploded at alamogordo on 16 july 1945. Arms race in asia we show case not 1 but a series of events which have happened in quick succession, in a span of just few weeks they clearly indicate that a massive arms race is on in south.
An arms race occurs when two or more nations participate in interactive or competitive increases in persons under arms as well as war material. Dec 20, 2017 defense companies are profiting as a major arms race is taking place all over the region. Arms race escalates in south asia region by rahul bedi 5. Comments by donald trump draw fears of an arms race in asia american troops participating in joint military exercises with south korea this month in.
Comments by donald trump draw fears of an arms race in asia. For the first time, this report will also examine the trends in each category over time. This has generated arms race and development debate in south asia. The prospect of an arms race is interlinked economics, politics and public policy in east asia and the pacific. Introduction as a region almost entirely unencumbered by meaningful nuclear arms control, south asia is unique. The first comprehensive history of arms races in modern international politics. According to the perspective of indian and pakistan find, read and. Deploys missile defense in south korea soldiers guarded the entrance to a golf course where the terminal. International politicoeconomic processes, corrupt political leadership, inefficient state institutions and growing.
Near the end of the cold war the soviet union was spending around 27% of its total gross national product on the military. Pakistans quest for security ghazala yasmin jalil abstract the paper examines the nuclear arms race in south asia. Science asias space race could turn into an arms race the current space race in asia, mainly between china, japan, and india, could kyle niemeyer dec 12, 2011 2. Should south asia succumb to arms races, crises, and war, the region could play a destabilizing role well beyond the subcontinent. Those who use complete nuclear disarmament within a short timeframe.
Sep, 2012 whether, as karnad asserts, the circle cannot be squared, is a question we did not address, in part because it is so complex, but also because our focus was on articulating the need to think more broadly than the prevailing cold war notion of an arms race when it comes to the future of south asia. Mar 29, 2016 comments by donald trump draw fears of an arms race in asia. Pdf on feb 18, 2019, nawab sher and others published arms race in south asia. Northeast asia is where four of the worlds largest militaries those of the united states, china, russia, and japan confront each other. Pdf nuclear arms race in south asia muhammed yusen. The final classic example is the nuclear arms race between the soviet union and the united states. With over three billion people, it contains more than half of the global population, including the worlds two most populous nations, india and china, this paper will use indopacific, asiapacific, and asia interchangeably, all to refer to the same geographic area defined herein. The paper traces the nuclear arms competition between the two south asian rivals and. Pdf the indiapakistani military and nuclear arms race. Arms races in international politics from the nineteenth to the twentyfirst century edited by thomas mahnken, joseph maiolo, and david stevenson.
This book provides the first comprehensive history of the arms racing phenomenon in modern international politics, drawing both on theoretical approaches and on the latest historical research. Bbc news south asian can the arms race between india and. Arms races as exemplified by the accumulation of stocks of weapons represent a very special case of weapons as an instrument of power. The paper examines the nuclear arms race in south asia. August 2017 6 late, for instance in the south china sea with its many conflicts. Regional arms race or bilateral arms races in northeast. Asia pacific was the second largest destination of u. In southeast asia, arms buildups are also a key part of the current strategic landscape, with military spending increasing by 62 per cent between 2002 and 2012, according to sipri estimates. Numerous media outlets and observers have interpreted these changes in the regions arms dynamics as indicators of an arms race in southeast asia. South korea is also building a naval base on jeju, one of its southernmost islands, far from pyongyang but strategically located between japan and china. The conventional, missile and nuclear weapons arms race between india and pakistan intensifies insecurity in the subcontinent and poses serious risks of strategic instability in south asia. In 2015, stimson will launch a groundbreaking, open online course on nuclear issues in south asia that will give thousands of. In 20, stimson launched a new website, south asian voices.
A new arms race explaining recent southeast asian military. The focus of this paper is to analyse this debate objectively. The nuclear arms race between india and pakistan is intensifying, with new weaponry and more aggressive doctrines that are stoking tensions between two powers at growing risk of confrontation. I do not believe that the concerns of an arms race in the report will have any impact when it comes to congress for passing the usindia nuclear agreement, or for that matter, the uspakistan f16 sale, maintains christine fair, south asia expert and senior. Arms imports by individual southeast asian states show a similar picture. Compared to the period 20062011, vietnam s arms imports. Asia s new arms race as china grows wealthier and builds up its military, other nations in the region are taking noteand amassing weapons of their own. Southeast asia military modernization, arms race, arms. Understanding the arms race in south asia carnegie. The flurry of developments heightened anxiety in asia over. This could become a mindless race, driven by mutual suspicion, rather than the actual needs of deterrence and stability. Control in south asia, will hopefully become a standard reference for academic courses as well as essential reading for government officials, military officers, and nongovernmental experts.
Simply defined as a competition between two or more states to have superior armed forces. Nuclear policy september 2012 understanding the arms race in south asia. Asia arms race heats up over south china sea april 02. Regional arms race or bilateral arms races in northeast and southeast asia. Nuclear weapons and arms control in south asia after the test ban eric arnett i.
And the philippines recent acquisition of a dozen new south korean fighter jets looks much less impressive if one considers that the last functioning fighter jet in the country was retired in 2005. Unless the problem is solved according to the wishes of the people of kashmir, the arms race in south asia will accelerate. What factors are driving this military modernisation. This, quite simply, is not the first time that concerns about arms races in asia have emerged. The first option deals with the global arm race and the nuclear. Balachandran and others published nuclear arms race in south asia. Indias mirv program and deterrence stability in south asia. One of the things that is different about arms races now is the presence of increasing returns in the. The deeply ingrained, traditional hostility between india and pakistan accentuates the dangers inherent in a south asian nuclear proliferation.
Assessing progress on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. The indiapakistani military and nuclear arms race in postcold war period. The south asia program produces policy analysis and academic research on regional strategic trends and geopolitical dynamics in order. As china expands its influence in the disputed south china sea, an arms race has developed among other nations with claims in the area.
Nuclearization of south asia and the future of non. There is no doubt in my mind it could escalate to a nuclear war a war no one can win. Nuclearization of south asia and the future of nonproliferation 4 the united state is the major culprit in the erosion of the npt. India and pakistan are indeed entangled in a longstanding security competition. There is growing concern that southeast asia is in the midst of a regional arms race. Asias space race could turn into an arms race ars technica. The regional security complex in south asia article pdf available june 2018 with 2,360 reads how we measure reads. Fearon department of political science stanford university draft march 24, 2011 abstract i consider a model of arming in which states choose in successive periods whether to build weapons and. This is not to say that the nuclear options of india and pakistan are themselves unconstrainedexport. Rapid militarism across south asia is likely to continue in the new year and beyond as simmering tension between its two larger member states nuclear rivals india and pakistan persists. Introduction after crossing the nuclear rubicon in may 1998, india and pakistan, the two nations of south asia, accept been accepting on a circuit that can just accompany added noteworthy uncertainty, pressure, the arm race and mal improvement to the region. China is massively increasing its military spending, worrying many of its neighbours into joining the new arms race in asia. Ideally, the best measure of whether the two are in fact in a classic, reciprocal nuclear arms competition would be the rate at which both sides are. Written by an international team of specialists, it is divided into four sections.
The nuclear age opened during world war ii with a blinding light. Looking at southeast asia specifically, concerns about a potential regional arms race first emerged in the 1980s, when the regional air forces started to acquire supersonic combat aircraft for the first time. Since the south china sea reemerged around 2008 as a hotspot of simmering conflict, conventional wisdom has held that tension in the area is driving an arms race among its littoral countries. Security dilemma in south asia umbreen javaid and marium kamal. Taking these factors into account, equating the changing arms dynamics of southeast asia with an arms race appears somewhat hyperbolic. The resulting arms competition, or arms dynamic, has at least the potential to contribute to a classical security dilemma, a situation whereby actions taken by a country can actually undermine the security and stability that they were meant to increase.
Nuclear arms race in south asia and its impact on regional. This would also have a direct impact on europe since a majority of its trade with asia which is crucial for the world economy uses shipping lanes in these waters. While claiming to be protecting the world from proliferation threats in iraq, libya, iran and north korea they also have abandoned past pledges and now threaten first use of nuclear weapons against non. The claims and realities this paper sets out to challenge the conventional wisdom that structural factors consist of the china threat, and that the ongoing south china sea disputes are the prime factors in the current military buildups in southeast asia. Experts, journalists, and commentators have talked about an arms race in this area as a fact, a trend, or an alarming threat.
Dec 26, 2016 arms race in asia we show case not 1 but a series of events which have happened in quick succession, in a span of just few weeks they clearly indicate that a massive arms race is on in south. Feb 24, 2018 and the philippines recent acquisition of a dozen new south korean fighter jets looks much less impressive if one considers that the last functioning fighter jet in the country was retired in 2005. Today, only two countries get their arms almost solely from the u. For more on adrian browns story, go to the sbs dateline website. Pdf arms race and development debate in south asia. The united states has a significant impact on the south asian nuclear threat as well, both direct and indirect. Economically, most south asian countries are increasingly dependent on the global market. In this case, a rapid arms buildup from the 1950s onward, spurred by such mistaken beliefs as the missile gap on the us side. However, while changes in southeast asia s regional arms dynamics remain below the threshold of an arms race, they do amount to more than a maintenance of the status quo. Regional arms race or bilateral arms races in northeast and. The littoral countries of the south china sea have committed large chunks of their military spending to upgrading their naval capacity, including in maritime aviation. Certainly many nations in the region have been on a veritable shopping spree for advanced conventional. Others tend to be more diversified, including australia 61% from the u. Compared to the period 20062011, vietnam s arms imports increased almost sevenfold.
In south asia, india and pakistan have also engaged in a technological nuclear arms race since the 1970s. Only countries with less money are not caught up in the reactionary mode. Arms races in international politics thomas mahnken. While this is clearly a strategic arms race between india and pakistan, this is also.